# GLM: Poisson Regression#

import arviz as az
import bambi as bmb
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
import numpy as np
import pandas as pd
import pymc as pm
import seaborn as sns

from formulae import design_matrices

RANDOM_SEED = 8927
rng = np.random.default_rng(RANDOM_SEED)

%config InlineBackend.figure_format = 'retina'
az.style.use("arviz-darkgrid")


This is a minimal reproducible example of Poisson regression to predict counts using dummy data.

This Notebook is basically an excuse to demo Poisson regression using PyMC3, both manually and using bambi to demo interactions using the formulae library. We will create some dummy data, Poisson distributed according to a linear model, and try to recover the coefficients of that linear model through inference.

For more statistical detail see:

This very basic model is inspired by a project by Ian Osvald, which is concerned with understanding the various effects of external environmental factors upon the allergic sneezing of a test subject.

## Generate Data#

This dummy dataset is created to emulate some data created as part of a study into quantified self, and the real data is more complicated than this. Ask Ian Osvald if you’d like to know more https://twitter.com/ianozsvald

### Assumptions:#

• The subject sneezes N times per day, recorded as nsneeze (int)

• The subject may or may not drink alcohol during that day, recorded as alcohol (boolean)

• The subject may or may not take an antihistamine medication during that day, recorded as the negative action nomeds (boolean)

• We postulate (probably incorrectly) that sneezing occurs at some baseline rate, which increases if an antihistamine is not taken, and further increased after alcohol is consumed.

• The data is aggregated per day, to yield a total count of sneezes on that day, with a boolean flag for alcohol and antihistamine usage, with the big assumption that nsneezes have a direct causal relationship.

Create 4000 days of data: daily counts of sneezes which are Poisson distributed w.r.t alcohol consumption and antihistamine usage

# decide poisson theta values
theta_noalcohol_meds = 1  # no alcohol, took an antihist
theta_alcohol_meds = 3  # alcohol, took an antihist
theta_noalcohol_nomeds = 6  # no alcohol, no antihist
theta_alcohol_nomeds = 36  # alcohol, no antihist

# create samples
q = 1000
df = pd.DataFrame(
{
"nsneeze": np.concatenate(
(
rng.poisson(theta_noalcohol_meds, q),
rng.poisson(theta_alcohol_meds, q),
rng.poisson(theta_noalcohol_nomeds, q),
rng.poisson(theta_alcohol_nomeds, q),
)
),
"alcohol": np.concatenate(
(
np.repeat(False, q),
np.repeat(True, q),
np.repeat(False, q),
np.repeat(True, q),
)
),
"nomeds": np.concatenate(
(
np.repeat(False, q),
np.repeat(False, q),
np.repeat(True, q),
np.repeat(True, q),
)
),
}
)

df.tail()

nsneeze alcohol nomeds
3995 26 True True
3996 35 True True
3997 36 True True
3998 32 True True
3999 35 True True

#### View means of the various combinations (Poisson mean values)#

df.groupby(["alcohol", "nomeds"]).mean().unstack()

nsneeze
nomeds False True
alcohol
False 1.047 5.981
True 2.986 35.929

### Briefly Describe Dataset#

g = sns.catplot(
x="nsneeze",
row="nomeds",
col="alcohol",
data=df,
kind="count",
height=4,
aspect=1.5,
)
for ax in (g.axes[1, 0], g.axes[1, 1]):
for n, label in enumerate(ax.xaxis.get_ticklabels()):
label.set_visible(n % 5 == 0)

/Users/benjamv/opt/miniconda3/envs/pymc_env/lib/python3.10/site-packages/seaborn/axisgrid.py:88: UserWarning: This figure was using constrained_layout, but that is incompatible with subplots_adjust and/or tight_layout; disabling constrained_layout.
self._figure.tight_layout(*args, **kwargs)


Observe:

• This looks a lot like poisson-distributed count data (because it is)

• With nomeds == False and alcohol == False (top-left, akak antihistamines WERE used, alcohol was NOT drunk) the mean of the poisson distribution of sneeze counts is low.

• Changing alcohol == True (top-right) increases the sneeze count nsneeze slightly

• Changing nomeds == True (lower-left) increases the sneeze count nsneeze further

• Changing both alcohol == True and nomeds == True (lower-right) increases the sneeze count nsneeze a lot, increasing both the mean and variance.

## Poisson Regression#

Our model here is a very simple Poisson regression, allowing for interaction of terms:

$\theta = exp(\beta X)$
$Y_{sneeze\_count} \sim Poisson(\theta)$

Create linear model for interaction of terms

fml = "nsneeze ~ alcohol + nomeds + alcohol:nomeds"  # full formulae formulation

fml = "nsneeze ~ alcohol * nomeds"  # lazy, alternative formulae formulation


### 1. Manual method, create design matrices and manually specify model#

Create Design Matrices

dm = design_matrices(fml, df, na_action="error")

mx_ex = dm.common.as_dataframe()
mx_en = dm.response.as_dataframe()

mx_ex

Intercept alcohol nomeds alcohol:nomeds
0 1 0 0 0
1 1 0 0 0
2 1 0 0 0
3 1 0 0 0
4 1 0 0 0
... ... ... ... ...
3995 1 1 1 1
3996 1 1 1 1
3997 1 1 1 1
3998 1 1 1 1
3999 1 1 1 1

4000 rows × 4 columns

Create Model

with pm.Model() as mdl_fish:

# define priors, weakly informative Normal
b0 = pm.Normal("Intercept", mu=0, sigma=10)
b1 = pm.Normal("alcohol", mu=0, sigma=10)
b2 = pm.Normal("nomeds", mu=0, sigma=10)
b3 = pm.Normal("alcohol:nomeds", mu=0, sigma=10)

# define linear model and exp link function
theta = (
b0
+ b1 * mx_ex["alcohol"].values
+ b2 * mx_ex["nomeds"].values
+ b3 * mx_ex["alcohol:nomeds"].values
)

## Define Poisson likelihood
y = pm.Poisson("y", mu=pm.math.exp(theta), observed=mx_en["nsneeze"].values)


Sample Model

with mdl_fish:
inf_fish = pm.sample()
# inf_fish.extend(pm.sample_posterior_predictive(inf_fish))

Auto-assigning NUTS sampler...
/Users/benjamv/opt/miniconda3/envs/pymc_env/lib/python3.10/site-packages/pymc/aesaraf.py:1005: UserWarning: The parameter 'updates' of aesara.function() expects an OrderedDict, got <class 'dict'>. Using a standard dictionary here results in non-deterministic behavior. You should use an OrderedDict if you are using Python 2.7 (collections.OrderedDict for older python), or use a list of (shared, update) pairs. Do not just convert your dictionary to this type before the call as the conversion will still be non-deterministic.
aesara_function = aesara.function(
Multiprocess sampling (4 chains in 4 jobs)
NUTS: [Intercept, alcohol, nomeds, alcohol:nomeds]

100.00% [8000/8000 00:07<00:00 Sampling 4 chains, 0 divergences]
Sampling 4 chains for 1_000 tune and 1_000 draw iterations (4_000 + 4_000 draws total) took 19 seconds.
The acceptance probability does not match the target. It is 0.8846, but should be close to 0.8. Try to increase the number of tuning steps.


View Diagnostics

az.plot_trace(inf_fish);


Observe:

• The model converges quickly and traceplots looks pretty well mixed

### Transform coeffs and recover theta values#

az.summary(np.exp(inf_fish.posterior), kind="stats")

mean sd hdi_3% hdi_97%
Intercept 1.047 0.033 0.980 1.105
alcohol 2.855 0.105 2.676 3.077
nomeds 5.720 0.195 5.341 6.074
alcohol:nomeds 2.108 0.082 1.936 2.249

Observe:

• The contributions from each feature as a multiplier of the baseline sneezecount appear to be as per the data generation:

1. exp(Intercept): mean=1.05 cr=[0.98, 1.10]

Roughly linear baseline count when no alcohol and meds, as per the generated data:

theta_noalcohol_meds = 1 (as set above) theta_noalcohol_meds = exp(Intercept) = 1

2. exp(alcohol): mean=2.86 cr=[2.67, 3.07]

non-zero positive effect of adding alcohol, a ~3x multiplier of baseline sneeze count, as per the generated data:

theta_alcohol_meds = 3 (as set above) theta_alcohol_meds = exp(Intercept + alcohol) = exp(Intercept) * exp(alcohol) = 1 * 3 = 3

3. exp(nomeds): mean=5.73 cr=[5.34, 6.08]

larger, non-zero positive effect of adding nomeds, a ~6x multiplier of baseline sneeze count, as per the generated data:

theta_noalcohol_nomeds = 6 (as set above) theta_noalcohol_nomeds = exp(Intercept + nomeds) = exp(Intercept) * exp(nomeds) = 1 * 6 = 6

4. exp(alcohol:nomeds): mean=2.10 cr=[1.96, 2.28]

small, positive interaction effect of alcohol and meds, a ~2x multiplier of baseline sneeze count, as per the generated data:

theta_alcohol_nomeds = 36 (as set above) theta_alcohol_nomeds = exp(Intercept + alcohol + nomeds + alcohol:nomeds) = exp(Intercept) * exp(alcohol) * exp(nomeds * alcohol:nomeds) = 1 * 3 * 6 * 2 = 36

### 2. Alternative method, using bambi#

Create Model

Alternative automatic formulation using bambi

model = bmb.Model(fml, df, family="poisson")


Fit Model

inf_fish_alt = model.fit()

Auto-assigning NUTS sampler...
/Users/benjamv/opt/miniconda3/envs/pymc_env/lib/python3.10/site-packages/pymc/aesaraf.py:1005: UserWarning: The parameter 'updates' of aesara.function() expects an OrderedDict, got <class 'dict'>. Using a standard dictionary here results in non-deterministic behavior. You should use an OrderedDict if you are using Python 2.7 (collections.OrderedDict for older python), or use a list of (shared, update) pairs. Do not just convert your dictionary to this type before the call as the conversion will still be non-deterministic.
aesara_function = aesara.function(
Multiprocess sampling (4 chains in 4 jobs)
NUTS: [Intercept, alcohol, nomeds, alcohol:nomeds]

100.00% [8000/8000 00:06<00:00 Sampling 4 chains, 0 divergences]
Sampling 4 chains for 1_000 tune and 1_000 draw iterations (4_000 + 4_000 draws total) took 17 seconds.


View Traces

az.plot_trace(inf_fish_alt);


### Transform coeffs#

az.summary(np.exp(inf_fish_alt.posterior), kind="stats")

mean sd hdi_3% hdi_97%
Intercept 1.047 0.032 0.984 1.105
alcohol 2.854 0.103 2.670 3.050
nomeds 5.717 0.191 5.362 6.082
alcohol:nomeds 2.108 0.080 1.963 2.261

Observe:

• The traceplots look well mixed

• The transformed model coeffs look moreorless the same as those generated by the manual model

• Note that the posterior predictive samples have an extreme skew

posterior_predictive = model.predict(inf_fish_alt, kind="pps")


We can use az.plot_ppc() to check that the posterior predictive samples are similar to the observed data.

For more information on posterior predictive checks, we can refer to https://docs.pymc.io/notebooks/posterior_predictive.html.

az.plot_ppc(inf_fish_alt);


## Watermark#

%load_ext watermark
%watermark -n -u -v -iv -w -p aesara,aeppl

Last updated: Mon May 30 2022

Python implementation: CPython
Python version       : 3.10.4
IPython version      : 8.3.0

aesara: 2.5.1
aeppl : 0.0.27

arviz     : 0.12.1
pandas    : 1.4.2
seaborn   : 0.11.2
matplotlib: 3.5.1
bambi     : 0.8.0
numpy     : 1.21.6
pymc      : 4.0.0b6

Watermark: 2.3.1