Posts tagged model averaging

Model Averaging

When confronted with more than one model we have several options. One of them is to perform model selection, using for example a given Information Criterion as exemplified the PyMC examples Model comparison and the GLM: Model Selection. Model selection is appealing for its simplicity, but we are discarding information about the uncertainty in our models. This is somehow similar to computing the full posterior and then just keep a point-estimate like the posterior mean; we may become overconfident of what we really know. You can also browse the blog/tag/model-comparison tag to find related posts.

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