{ "cells": [ { "cell_type": "markdown", "metadata": {}, "source": [ "(GP-MaunaLoa)=\n", "# Gaussian Process for CO2 at Mauna Loa\n", "\n", ":::{post} April, 2022\n", ":tags: gaussian process, CO2 \n", ":category: intermediate\n", ":author: Bill Engels, Chris Fonnesbeck\n", ":::" ] }, { "cell_type": "markdown", "metadata": {}, "source": [ "This Gaussian Process (GP) example shows how to:\n", "\n", "- Design combinations of covariance functions\n", "- Use additive GPs whose individual components can be used for prediction\n", "- Perform maximum a-posteriori (MAP) estimation" ] }, { "cell_type": "markdown", "metadata": {}, "source": [ "Since the late 1950's, the Mauna Loa observatory has been taking regular measurements of atmospheric CO$_2$. In the late 1950's Charles Keeling invented a accurate way to measure atmospheric CO$_2$ concentration.\n", "Since then, CO$_2$ measurements have been recorded nearly continuously at the Mauna Loa observatory. Check out last hours measurement result [here](https://www.co2.earth/daily-co2). \n", "\n", "![](http://sites.gsu.edu/geog1112/files/2014/07/MaunaLoaObservatory_small-2g29jvt.png)\n", "\n", "Not much was known about how fossil fuel burning influences the climate in the late 1950s. The first couple years of data collection showed that CO$_2$ levels rose and fell following summer and winter, tracking the growth and decay of vegetation in the northern hemisphere. As multiple years passed, the steady upward trend increasingly grew into focus. With over 70 years of collected data, the Keeling curve is one of the most important climate indicators.\n", "\n", "The history behind these measurements and their influence on climatology today and other interesting reading:\n", "\n", "- http://scrippsco2.ucsd.edu/history_legacy/early_keeling_curve#\n", "- https://scripps.ucsd.edu/programs/keelingcurve/2016/05/23/why-has-a-drop-in-global-co2-emissions-not-caused-co2-levels-in-the-atmosphere-to-stabilize/#more-1412\n", "\n", "Let's load in the data, tidy it up, and have a look. The [raw data set is located here](http://scrippsco2.ucsd.edu/data/atmospheric_co2/mlo). This notebook uses the [Bokeh package](http://bokeh.pydata.org/en/latest/) for plots that benefit from interactivity." ] }, { "cell_type": "markdown", "metadata": {}, "source": [ "## Preparing the data" ] }, { "cell_type": "markdown", "metadata": {}, "source": [ ":::{include} ../extra_installs.md\n", ":::" ] }, { "cell_type": "code", "execution_count": 1, "metadata": { "ExecuteTime": { "end_time": "2018-05-25T03:53:40.677967Z", "start_time": "2018-05-25T03:53:38.727395Z" } }, "outputs": [ { "data": { "text/html": [ "\n", "
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\\n\"+\n", " \"\\n\"+\n",
" \"from bokeh.resources import INLINE\\n\"+\n",
" \"output_notebook(resources=INLINE)\\n\"+\n",
" \"
\\n\"+\n",
" \"\\n\"+\n \"BokehJS does not appear to have successfully loaded. If loading BokehJS from CDN, this \\n\"+\n \"may be due to a slow or bad network connection. Possible fixes:\\n\"+\n \"
\\n\"+\n \"\\n\"+\n \"from bokeh.resources import INLINE\\n\"+\n \"output_notebook(resources=INLINE)\\n\"+\n \"
\\n\"+\n \"\n", " | CO2 | \n", "seasonaly_adjusted | \n", "fit | \n", "seasonally_adjusted_fit | \n", "CO2_filled | \n", "seasonally_adjusted_filled | \n", "
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1958-03-15 | \n", "315.71 | \n", "314.44 | \n", "316.19 | \n", "314.91 | \n", "315.71 | \n", "314.44 | \n", "
1958-04-15 | \n", "317.45 | \n", "315.16 | \n", "317.30 | \n", "314.99 | \n", "317.45 | \n", "315.16 | \n", "
1958-05-15 | \n", "317.51 | \n", "314.70 | \n", "317.87 | \n", "315.07 | \n", "317.51 | \n", "314.70 | \n", "
1958-07-15 | \n", "315.86 | \n", "315.20 | \n", "315.86 | \n", "315.22 | \n", "315.86 | \n", "315.20 | \n", "
1958-08-15 | \n", "314.93 | \n", "316.20 | \n", "313.98 | \n", "315.29 | \n", "314.93 | \n", "316.20 | \n", "